Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) shares rose by three percent on the NSE on January 14, trading at 125 rupees, after previously dipping to a 52 week low. Such a recovery was anticipated as most OMC stocks were under pressure with increasing global crude oil prices due the new US sanctions on Russian Oil.

Market trends and current performance

The stock's most recent decline, dropping to a 13 months low was due primarily to the increase of brent crude oil in prices to 81 dollars. Disruptions on the oil supply chain due Russian sanctions have caused high levels of volatility in the IOCL market. In recent times, a two year long investment in IOCL shares has returned a. 52 percent gain, but IOCL still fell by 38 percent from the previously recorded 196.80 rupees in February of 2024.

In the words of Nilesh Jain cum Assistant Vice President of Centrum Broking:  
Indian Oil shares are dreading the strong winds coming from the crude on the north side, further any pullback rally could take the stock to ₹130-132 and anything further below that say ₹115 has the possibility of restoring it to the range of ₹105-110. On the contrary, long-term investors might view this as a positive sign and expect the stock price to rally up to ₹150-155 in the course of the next year.  

Technical Analysis and Short-Term View  

Riyank Arora, a Technical Analyst for Mehta equities pointed towards one of the crucial drops observed in the stocks price:  
Indian Oil has breached the (129.50) barrier along with strong corrections at 130 and what seems to be a breakaway gap is a strong indication of downside momentum the targets for the downside are where resistance is (112 and 110). Selling short with a x133 stop loss comes with a great risk reward and offers solid risk management against ‘Hoovers’  on the breakdown area again while the stock comes off the critical level of A.  

Dividend Payout History 

Indian Oil has continued the trend of being one of the top PSU dividend payers with the latest stock marginally over 9 per cent in ￥.57 dividends on a constant investment purchase of share Prices.  
In 2024 IOCL managed to pay seven rupees in dividends per share.  
Further, in 2015, dividends of three and five were issued around July and November respectively.  
Moreover, IOCL in the year 2018 along with pre bonuses of four Singh shares paid out around two hundred six rupees and forty-six of post-bonus shares.

Insights for Investors and Strategic Direction

Indian Oil, despite being caught in current challenges, is still a Maharatna company and even a NIFTY NEXT 50 member. Due to the increase in volatility in crude price, analysts recommend short-term investors to be cautious, however, such analysts believe the long-term investors should consider the prices reasonably attractive.

"Through dividend payments and strategic interventions, IOCL sustains competitive strength in the OMC sector,” said the experts.

In the current scenario, Indian Oil stocks have faced pressure on the face of the surging crude oil prices. But for long-term investors seeking growth, the stocks may appear attractive mainly on account of high dividend payout. In volatile or changing geopolitical and economic situations, the recommendation is to watch day to day price movements carefully and important technical levels.