Iran-Israel War: A year ago on this day, Hamas fighters bloodied Israeli soil. This was the biggest tragedy for this community after the massacre of Jews by the Nazis. In the massacre that day, 1,200 Israelis were killed on the spot, and 250 innocent people were taken hostage at gunpoint. Even today Hamas has more than 100 hostages. The very next day, on 8 October 2023, Hezbollah, sitting on the Lebanese border, targeted northern Israel and opened a front, due to this action, about 85 thousand Israelis had to leave their homes and wander in search of safe places. A similar picture emerged in April this year and the beginning of this month, when the Israeli people were taken to safe places to avoid Iranian missiles and drones. After almost a year, questions are arising as to what expectations did Hamas leaders had from that attack. Also, what did the representatives sitting in Majlis Shoray-e-Islami (Iranian Parliament) gain from it?

Intelligence failure became the reason for the attack.

To some extent, that attack was the result of the failure of Israeli intelligence; Mossad, Shinbet, Aman, and Sayeret Metkal, all these intelligence agencies failed to guess that such an attack could be carried out. The agencies now openly admit that the attack by the jihadists and extremists led by Yahya Sinwar was underestimated; Israeli intelligence agencies were aware of the attack but Hamas was taken lightly. This is why on 7 October last year, Israel did not immediately react, for which Israel is more or less known.

Hamas had carefully planned the attacks.

On the other hand, in the current circumstances, Israel was going through domestic instability, and Hamas felt that Tel Aviv was going through a delicate phase, so its retaliation would be toned down in anger and aggression. In such a situation, Hamas prepared the plan of attack keeping all the equations in mind, because it knew that even in its strongest condition, Hamas would not be able to unite its people based on ideology and religion.

Tehran's intentions revealed

According to classified reports from Israel, a long-term plan was chalked out behind that attack. Hamas planned to send Iran's ideological extremist allies, i.e., Iraq's Shia militia, Hezbollah from Lebanon, and Houthis from Yemen, to the battlefield in the war that broke out after the attack. All of them together wanted to end Israel's existence, these elements of the extremist axis were getting central instructions directly from Tehran. Iranian proxies got ample opportunity to show their jihadist extremism and loyalty to Tehran by opening a front against Tel Aviv. On the other hand, Iran also wanted to dominate among Sunni-majority countries and Islamic republics, so that it could prove itself to be a true follower of Islam all over the world. Along with this, it also wants to give a message to all Muslim countries including the Arab League that only they can show their strength to Western powers including America and Israel.

Khamenei has a chance to establish Iranian dominance.

Iran, nurtured by its fanatic ideology under the leadership of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wants to spread its ideology among Shia Muslims all over the world. The Iranian regime, with its dominance and power, is in favor of crushing its opponents ruthlessly, and this has become completely clear in the last one year. Underestimating these intentions and objectives of Tehran can prove to be costly for the world. This has been confirmed by the fact that Tehran has surrounded Tel Aviv from all sides. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, along with its allies, has kept all kinds of military options open. For this purpose, Shia militias, Iranian commandos, missiles, and drones are in high alert mode. These are the same Iranian capabilities that Tehran used in Yemen against Sunni-dominated Saudi Arabia and UAE. Along with this, Iran has been openly expressing its aggression in West Asia, and in this list, it is constantly running on the path of becoming a nuclear power, both secretly and openly.

Tehran tries a successful recipe.

It is clear from the speech of Ayatollah Khamenei after Jumma's prayers last Friday (4 October 2024) that destroying Israel has become the purpose of his life. Interestingly, Khamenei has a lot of strategic patience, that is, he is looking for the right opportunity to wage an open war against Israel. The path on which Tehran is moving, it is clear that it is engaged in full preparation without making any mistakes. Waiting and strong military preparation have been its special identity. He used this strategy in Lebanon, where he established Hezbollah and strengthened its roots amidst delicate conditions and economic crises. He applied the same formula in Yemen as well. Where amidst political vacuum, devastation, humanitarian crisis, and civil war, he nourished the roots of the Shia militia group Houthis. Now Iran has brought this strategy to the threshold of Africa as well.

Iran's siege destabilizes the Middle East.

The reality that emerged after October 7 has made it clear that Israel's existence is under direct threat from Tehran's policymakers. Israel's activism and firmness is a spontaneous response while assessing the dangers of tomorrow. At the same time, by blocking international trade in the Red Sea and supporting Russia against Ukraine, Iran has also incurred the enmity of Western war powers. The kind of instability that the Iranian camp and its encirclement have created has shaken the Middle East badly. To deal with this entire episode, Israel has been forced to carry out joint war actions under the leadership of the United States. Such an initiative should have been taken before October 7, when Iranian forces had almost accomplished their plans. In the current circumstances, Israel has completed preparations to compete with Iran by strengthening its regional cooperation.

Israel has a good chance to take revenge by increasing aggression.

For Tel Aviv, the challenge is to firmly counter Iranian aggression, for which the IDF must first destroy Tehran's proxy capabilities. For now, Israel must continue operations like the one it carried out this week against the Houthis and Hezbollah. Tel Aviv must be prepared for any kind of air strikes from Iran. This is a good time for the IDF to target their nuclear installations to ward off any threat if Tehran crosses its patience.

The White House will provide all possible help.

In the current circumstances, the US can weave new equations for Israel based on the Abraham Accord, under which, citing the agreement, it can activate the coordination system in the Middle East to prevent air threats against Tel Aviv. Sensing the situation, this coordination can also be used for counterattack. Washington will force many countries to impose strict sanctions on Iran. Along with this, many Iranian companies can be banned, their accounts can be frozen, Iranian assets can be confiscated and the US can also tighten its reins on the funding of radical groups. It is also believed that on the direction of the Pentagon, many countries can blacklist Iran, its associated radical organizations, and IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and put them on the terrorist list. That is, Iran can be weakened at the global level. Along with this, the White House can also support the voice of opposition rising in Iran, so that it can be easy to isolate Tehran at the international level. Iranian rulers have already described the anti-burqa protests going on in their country as Israeli-American sponsored.

The US considers Israel, like Ukraine and Taiwan, to be a bearer of a democratic mentality, which is currently caught in the axis of destruction. Even though Israel suffered a ruthless attack exactly a year ago, it has brought about a wonderful unity and awareness among them. The way the IDF has broken the backbone of Hamas, it will no longer be able to acquire the deadly capabilities it used to have, nor will it be able to carry out such horrific plans.